Sea level rise and coastal development have increased the risk and impact. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Sixth Assessment Report projects that the global proportion of tropical cyclones that reach very intense (category 4-5) levels, along with their peak winds and rainfall rates, are expected to increase with climate warming. But the death toll has fallen dramatically thanks to improvements in forecasting, warning and disaster risk reduction coordinated by WMO’s Tropical Cyclone Programme. Over the past 50 years, every single day, they have caused on average 43 deaths and US$ 78 million losses and have also been responsible for one third of both deaths and economic losses from weather-, climate- and water-related disasters, according to WMO statistics from 1970-2019. WMO maintains lists of names in order to communicate about hazards and to save lives.Įvery year, there are on average 84 named tropical cyclones all over the world. The hurricane seasons in 20 were exceptionally active and both exhausted the regular names from WMO’s rotating list. In the North Atlantic, and north eastern Pacific basins, WMO’s Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Miami (the US National Hurricane Center) is responsible for tropical cyclone forecasting, including for marine-related hazards. The hurricane season extends from June 1 to November 30. NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph (63 kmh) or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph/119 kmh or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph/179 kmh or higher). This would make it the seventh consecutive year of above average activity, according to an outlook from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).įorecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, predict a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The ongoing La Niña event and above-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures have set the stage for an above average hurricane season.
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